Paco Predicts

I am reluctant to make a prediction, particularly when the issue itself will be resolved within the next week or so, because the degree of embarrassment stemming from an incorrect prognostication is inversely proportional to the amount of time that elapses between the forecast and the event. However, I will take the plunge this time and state that I do not think, current rumors to the contrary notwithstanding, that Hillary will be Obama’s choice for Vice President.

Hillary is a Clinton first, and a Democrat second; politics, for her, is about the aggrandizement of power by the Clinton clan and its coterie. Assuming that Obama wins, serving as his second fiddle would make it very difficult for her to mount a challenge to him during the nomination process in the last year of his first term, and if she entertained the hope of using the #2 position as a stepping stone to the White House, the possibility of an Obama second term could conceivably forestall her bid until 2016, when she would be 69 years old. Not ancient, by any means, but if Hillary Clinton is the freshest thing on offer from the Democrats eight years from now, then the party will be in bad shape, indeed.

Another thing to remember is that Hillary is not stupid. She may be a Democrat, but she’s not blind to the very real possibility that an Obama presidency could be an unmitigated disaster. Maintaining the level of public support for the President necessary to sustain her credibility within the administration, while simultaneously attempting to distance herself from his incompetence (or worse) is a balancing act that would require a combination of genius and cunning that, frankly, does not seem to be within her mental scope (nor, in fairness to Hillary, would it appear to be within anybody else’s).

So much for the VP slot from what I take to be Hillary’s perspective. What about Obama’s? What does he gain by making her his running mate? True, he may recapture many currently embittered Hillary supporters, but he would also then come face to face with that enormous core group of voters who would not, under any circumstances, have supported her for President, some of whom might have been willing to vote for him had he been otherwise unencumbered with Clinton baggage. Besides, does he really want to spend the next four years (or eight) watching his back against the machinations of Team Clinton?

Frankly, I think Scott Ott is on the right trail.

Update: It would be kind of funny if he did pick Hillary, because he's announcing his choice via text message, right? I can just see it: "Hill. ATAB? LOL!"