Sunday, June 14, 2009

Is Occam’s Razor Rusting in a Drawer Somewhere?

Nick Cohen has written a long, thoughtful essay on the modern tendency to embrace Byzantine conspiracy theories, the import of which is that conspiracy theorists can wind up doing genuine harm – sometimes, more harm than actual conspirators. Here’s an interesting quote from the article that underscores a point I have made before on the theme of Lionel Trilling’s assertion that we have a moral obligation to consistently apply our intelligence: “Irrationality is both cumulative and contagious. You start by reading your horoscope in the newspaper; then you dabble in chakra balancing or feng shui, saying that it is important to keep an open mind; after a while your mind is so open that your brains fall out, and you read the Protocols of the Elders of Zion without noticing anything amiss."

The simplest explanation may not, of course, always be the correct one, but I believe that convoluted theories which posit a combination of diabolism and competence that are not typically within the grasp of individuals, let alone organizations and bureaucracies, are almost invariably wrong.

14 comments:

JeffS said...

Complex conspiracies are very seductive, in addition to being destructive. I suspect that this is so because generating a fantasy is so much easier than analyzing the data and making hard choices on the validity of data.

It's simple mental laziness....a trait that is becoming all too common in this tired old world.

TW: debuser. I wish I could debuse all of the abuse.

kc said...

This is me, applauding Paco...like that's something new, right?

Conspiracy theories, even when (mostly) factually correct, have the fatal fault of expecting sometimes thousands of humans to work closely together IN SECRET. I have NEVER seen this work in tiny little groups of 3 or 4, so cannot even imagine it working with any larger group.

Definitely mental laziness, well put, JeffS.

commoncents said...

Nice blog - keep up the excellent work!
COMMON CENTS
www.commoncts.blogspot.com

ps. Link Exchange??

Yojimbo said...

"mental laziness" is short for liberalism.

The real problem is the growing capability of this stuff to go forth and multiply from its host. The public school systems are generating millions of mindnumbed robots who lack the capability to make distinctions on practically anything. This is partly done by design so they get their narratives like AGW inculcated without a wimper. The other reason is the unions simply want to get paid more for doing less and be held less accountable for it. Sorry Swamptster but it's true.

Paco said...

Welcome Common Cents! Can do on the link exchange.

RebeccaH said...

Excellent piece, thanks for the link, Paco. I took special note of Cohen's thoughts about "left" and "right", since the lunatic fringes of both look so much alike these days. Maybe it would be best to start using more precise descriptions.

I'm also trying to resist my own particular paranoia about the Obama administration, you know, trying not to be the KosKid of the sane-o-sphere. So far, not a lot of success.

Paco said...

Rebecca: The thing about the current Administration is that it can rely on personality-cult enthusiasm, widespread ignorance and general complacency to push its vision without having to resort to conspiratorial plots.

Steve Burri said...

Occam's razor has succumbed to post-modernity.

The 'new & improved' Occam's razor now has 6 blades, a lubricating strip, and a small battery powered vibrating motor.

I contacted William of Ockham via seance during the last full moon. He said, and I quote, "WTF?" End of quote.

richard mcenroe said...

Occam's Razor is NOT rusting in a drawer. The Holder DoJ determined that "Heller" doesn't apply to edged implements so it has been banned from private ownership...

bruce said...

But I definitely think there is an Indian conspiracy to taker over the world - convenience stores, spelling contests - see the pattern? Control the fast food supply and make people overeat, monopolise spelling, eventually they will write the dictionary, change the meaning of words, how will we communicate?

All decided at their global HQ deep under the Taj Mahal, not the parliament in Delhi where they seem never to agree on anything - that's just a show.

My wife is of Indian descent btw - that's part of the conspiracy.

JeffS said...

"mental laziness" is short for liberalism.

Quite right, Yojimbo. I just never made the point.

Boy on a bike said...

Try this podcast:

http://www.abc.net.au/rn/counterpoint/stories/2009/2589203.htm

Excellent interview with a bloke who just wrote a book on conspiracies and why we love to embrace them.

Anonymous said...

But Paco, don't you know there's a whole rightwing faction, quite vast according to Ms. Rodham, established to develop and execute a conspiracy of diabolical proportions? Bawahahahahaha.

In reality, the VRWC is a bit disorganized of late. Karl hasn't been in. Cheney is making speeches against Obama. And I'm still trying to locate that nincompoop, Stoop Davy Dave. I'll try 1790 England. One of the characters in Pride and Prejudice sounds remarkably like him.

wronwright

Paco said...

Wronwright: Of course, the VRWC is something else entirely. And it remains vast, even though Stoop Davy Dave may well be sitting in a tavern somewhere, grabbing at the serving wenches.