Henry Louis Gomez of the Babalu blog has an article up at Pajamas Media in which he throws a little cold water on the expectations of those optimists who seem to believe that Raul Castro's favorite bedtime reading is Adam Smith. As Henry points out, the practical effects of Raul's "reforms" are likely to be nil - certainly not anywhere near sufficient to overcome the economic drag created by a Marxist government.
Another factor to bear in mind when contemplating the hurdles to genuine reform in Cuba is the extent to which the military has worked its tentacles into the economic sector. The army has been given a large investment stake in various businesses, including the tourist industry. How realistic is it to expect that the Cuban army - the only people that actually, you know, possess guns - is going to cheerfully turn in its meal ticket for the greater good?
There are a couple of silver linings to this cloud, however. Even Raul Castro seems to grasp the fact (whether he admits it publicly or not) that Marxism is a dead-end street. And the second positive factor is that 50 years of communism have not extinguished the desire for freedom on the part of the Cuban people.
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It's easy to focus on Fidel, and now Raul, and forget the whole Castro family has a vested interest in continuing to treat Cuba as their personal fiefdom. They'd rather go on with what has worked than take a chance on democracy.
Retread
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