Tuesday, September 7, 2010

Woodpecker Redux

Looks like the Australian Labor Party pulled out a victory with the help of some independents. That means, of course, that Julia Gillard will be Prime Minister.


So, what are the betting odds on the longevity of this government?

(H/T - and commiseration - to friend and commenter Merilyn)


bruce said...

I think a lot of us are dismayed at how our political process has slid into incoherence.

Who knows how long it will last?

cac said...

It could last a lot longer than many of us hope. Basically she has Government due to the support of 2 greens and 2 independent rural types. The Greens will never vote for a coalition but are occasionally attracted to kamikaze type ideological purity stunts - Australia would now have a carbon tax if the Greens hadn't decided it wasn't stringent enought so we have nothing which I'm fine with but seems an odd result if you profess to be concerned about this stuff. It's therefore possible that the Greens could bring the whole edifice down over the Goverment's failure to do something that even the ALP can see is stupid.

More likely I think is that one of the rural independents will buck at having to support a left agenda and swing over to Tony Abott although even as we speak barrel loads of pork are off to their electorates so they may well stay bought and paid for.

Most likely I think is a full term Government but one that is totally ineffective as it tries to keep the Greens and conservative rural independents happy and an Abbotslide in 2013.

Paco said...

cac: Interesting analysis. It looks, at least, as if potential damage can be limited.

cac said...

I should add that one saving grace is that the maddest of the rural independents - one Bob Katter - did not go with the ALP. I say saving grace because his core policies - ethanol subsidies and a return to import tariffs for agriculture - would do some real damage whereas the next 3 years will merely be a spending frenzy but will not do any long term structural economic damage. Had he gone with the ALP I suspect they would have delivered on this nonsense as with a 2 seat margin, one extra seat is worth quite a lot in terms of stability.

Merilyn said...

Bruce I'm on record at Blair's blog for it lasting 16 months [and I think that just may be generous].
cac, there is a bit of trouble in paradise as we speak, on ninemsm this morning Windsor was not happy with the 30% mining tax, and wanted more "discussion" but Swan has already said it will go ahead,[and let's not forget the Geens want a higher mining tax,] as you say cac interesting times ahead and Paco Julia did indeed have a very smug smile on her face.

bingbing said...

$1.80 by December 31st next year.